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CCTV: China ’s pork supply will be tight in the next ten years, and imports will remain high

  • Categories:Industry news
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2019-12-16
  • Views:6

CCTV: China ’s pork supply will be tight in the next ten years, and imports will remain high

(Summary description)The report cited data from the National Bureau of Statistics. In 2018, 694 million pigs were slaughtered nationwide, a decrease of 1.2% compared to the previous year; pork production was 54.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% compared to the previous year.

  • Categories:Industry news
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2019-12-16
  • Views:6
Information
CCTV News:
In August 2018, the first outbreak of African swine fever in China had a significant impact on the entire pig industry and market in China. "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2019-2028)" analysis and forecast: China's pork supply will be tight in the next ten years, and imports will remain at a high level.
 

The report cited data from the National Bureau of Statistics. In 2018, 694 million pigs were slaughtered nationwide, a decrease of 1.2% compared to the previous year; pork production was 54.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.9% compared to the previous year.

Zhu Zengyong, Deputy Researcher, Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences: Since October last year, our entire fertile sow production capacity and production capacity have declined rapidly. (This year) In March, our inventory of fertile sows dropped by 21% year-on-year, which indicates that our supply of hogs will decline significantly in 2019. We expect that, if optimistic, total pig production in 2019 will fall by 6.7%.

The report analyzes that after March 2019, pork prices in the domestic market will start to increase. It is estimated that in May, the entire pork price may experience a rapid periodical increase. Especially in the second half of the year, affected by the shortage of fertile sows, the market will have a tight supply of pork.

Zhu Zengyong, Associate Researcher, Institute of Agricultural Information, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences:

Therefore, we expect that the entire price high in 2019 will appear from New Year's Day (2020) to the Spring Festival. In order to make up for this, we are facing a tight supply due to the decline in domestic output. Therefore, it is expected that the import of whole pork may increase significantly in 2019.

In 2018, China's pork imports were 1.128 million tons, the report predicts; pork imports in 2019 and 2020 will be 1.7 million tons and 2 million tons, respectively. By 2020, if domestic supplies fall further, pork imports may continue to increase. If the epidemic control level increases and production capacity recovers in the later period, pork imports may gradually decline.

Can the price of pigs be stabilized by imports? Is this really the case?

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of Galaxy Securities: We know that the global pork consumption and supply is about 110 million tons, of which China's production is about 52 million tons and consumption is about 54 million tons, so we have to rely on some imports To calm the balance between consumption and supply.

China ’s pork consumption and supply account for 50% of the world ’s total. When talking about pork, many people will say that if prices rise, we can calm down by importing from the United States and other countries. Is this really the case? The United States produces about 11 million tons, and its consumption accounts for more than 8% of the world's total. It is about 9 million tons, and it can export 2 million tons.

If a market that accounts for 50% of the world is subject to the same impact as in the past ordinary pig cycle, this impact will be small, and part of it can be calmed by increasing imports. But if this production market is strongly impacted, it will affect not only domestic food prices, but also global food prices. We imported approximately 142,800 tons of US pork in the first quarter, and US pork futures prices have risen by 50% since the beginning of the year.

At present, as China's epidemic spreads, global pig prices are skyrocketing. China may set off a revolution in the world meat market.

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